I am an Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences at IE University.
I have spent the past 10 years working on decision science and prediction. My research has received support from IARPA, NSF and Founders Pledge, and appeared in outlets such as Management Science, OBHDP, AAAI, Neurology and Psychological Science. My popular writing has featured in Scientific American and The Washington Post.
After earning my PhD in psychology & decision processes from the University of Pennsylvania, I spent 3 years as a Postdoctoral Scholar with Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the Good Judgment Project (GJP), the winner of the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament. At GJP, I led research & development projects on prediction markets, talent spotting, aggregation algorithms and predictive training. I then spent a year in Fintech project management, developing a robo-advisor front-end to a global macro hedge-fund engine.In 2016, Regina Joseph and I co-founded Pytho, an R&D and consulting boutique. We took part in the top-performing team in the IARPA-sponsored Hybrid Forecasting Competition, where I focused on statistical aggregation algorithms. At Pytho, we developed Human Forest, a patented method and software for crowdsourced reference class elicitation and prediction. We are testing Human Forest with NSF support, and are developing research, non-profit and commercial applications of the technology. I have also worked on projects with collaborators from McGill University, Fordham University, the University of Pennsylvania, the Chicago Fed and others.
In my spare time, I enjoy election betting, long-distance running, flat whites and pointy puns.
At INFORMS 2023, I presented our paper "Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discover of Skilled Forecasters." The full manuscript is available upon request.
Another paper I co-authored, together David Budescu and lead author Mark Himmelstein, was honored as a finalist in the Decision Analysis Society Best Paper competition.
In the Fall of 2023, I joined IE Business School as an Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences, as part of the Operations and Technology Area. I will be teaching Masters and PhD courses on Business Statistics and Analytics.
I will be at the INFORMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona in October 2023, presenting the paper: "Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discovery of Skilled Forecasters." If you are at the conference, say hello.
Our book chapter with Mark Himmelstein, "Talent Spotting in Crowd Prediction" will appear in a volume edited by Matthias Seifert. A preprint is now available here, and was featured on MarginalRevolution. I will presented the paper at ACM Collective Intelligence in October, SJDM in November.
Our manuscript "Crowdsourced Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters" was accepted at ACM EC 2022. I presented this work in July in Boulder, CO.
Our abstract based on the "Crowdsourced Prediction Systems" manuscript was also accepted at Association for Decision Analysis conference, ADA Advances. I presented it in June, 2022 in UVA Darden's beautiful DC-area campus.