RESEARCH

PUBLICATIONS

  Atanasov P, Dana J, Teeselink B. (2023) Taste-Based Gender Discrimination in the Field: Evidence from The Price Is Right.    Provisionally Accepted at The Economic Journal. 

Atanasov P, Himmelstein M. (2023) Talent Spotting in Crowd Prediction. In Seifert, M. (Ed)., Judgment in Predictive Analytics, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Series, Springer NY. PDF. 

  Atanasov P, Witkowski J, Mellers B, Tetlock P. (2022) Crowdsourced Prediction: Markets, Polls, and Elite  

  Forecasters. Accepted at ACM EC 2022. Full Text. 

Himmelstein M, Atanasov P, Budescu D. (2021). Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences. Judgment & Decision Making, 16(2). PDF.

Winner: De Finetti Prize, European Association for Decision Making to Mark Himmelstein.

Atanasov P, Witkowski, J, Ungar L, Mellers B, Tetlock P. (2020). Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 160, 19-35. PDF. Presented at ACM EC 2020.

Covered in Andrew Gelman’s blog, Scientific American, Michael Mauboussin, Farnam Street's Brain Food Newsletter.

Atanasov P, Diamantaras A, MacPherson A, Vinarov E, Benjamin, D, Shrier I, Friedemann P, Dirnagl U, Kimmelman J. (2020). Wisdom of the expert crowd prediction of response for 3 neurology randomized trials. Neurology, 95(5), e488-e498. PDF.

Joseph R, Atanasov P. (2019) Predictive Training and Accuracy: Self-Selection and Causal Factors. Collective Intelligence Conference, 2019. PDF. 

Dana J, Atanasov P, Tetlock P, Mellers B. (2019). Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(2), 135-147. PDF.

Covered in Vox’s Future Perfect.

Chang W, Atanasov P, Patil S, Mellers B, Tetlock P. (2017) Accountability and Adaptive Performance: The Long-term View. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(6), 610–626. PDF.

Witkowski J, Atanasov P, Ungar L, Krause A. (2017) Proper Proxy Scoring Rules. Presented at AAAI-17: Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. PDF.

Atanasov P, Rescober P, Stone E, Servan-Schreiber E, Tetlock P, Ungar L, Mellers B. (2017) Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls. Management Science, 63(3), 691–706. PDF. 

Covered in Scientific American, Nesta.

Atanasov P, Kunreuther H. (2016) Cautious defection: Group representatives cooperate and risk less than individuals. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 29, 372–380. PDF. 

Mellers B, Stone E, Atanasov P, Rohrbaugh N, Metz S, Bishop M, Ungar L, Horowitz M, Tetlock P. (2015) The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21(1), 1–14. PDF.

Covered in Popular Science, Vox, Harvard Business Review.

Mellers B, Ungar L, Baron J, Ramos J, Gurcay B, Fincher K, Scott S, Moore D, Atanasov P, Swift S, Murray T, Tetlock P.  (2014) Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, 25(5), 1106-1115. PDF. 

Covered in The Atlantic.  

WORKING PAPERS

Atanasov P, Joseph R, Feijoo F, Conway A, Marshall M, Siddiqui S. (2022) Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-sensitive Covid-19 Clinical Trial Prediction. Working Paper. 

Presented at INFORMS 2021, SJDM 2021. 

Karger J, Atanasov P, Tetlock P. (2022) Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies. SSRN Working Paper.

Top Ten Recent Downloads in each of Psychology & Management Research Networks.

Atanasov P, Dana J, Tetlock P, Mellers B. (2019) Edge Insensitivity in Bet Sizing. Working Paper. Presented at SJDM 2019.

Atanasov P, Smout R, Stone E. (2019) Risk Preferences for Self and Others under Uncertainty: Meta-analysis and Research Directions. Working Paper.